USWNT: Tournament of Nations Takeaways and World Cup 2019 Look Ahead
By: Greg Calarco
World Cup 2019 in France is just over 10 months away, and you better believe the sense of urgency is being felt on all fronts of the USWNT camp. The USA has been in razor-sharp form this year, including a current 19 match unbeaten streak dating back to last July. It’s a totally different feeling watching them play compared to 2017 when they lost three times on home soil, (A team record for a single calendar year) which could’ve easily been four had it not been for an epic 4-3 come from behind win over Brazil.
The USWNT is coming off an impressive win in the Tournament of Nations. They had a strong showing against 2011 World Cup Champs, Japan, before knotting a stalemate against rising-powerhouse Australia thanks to some late Horan heroics. Then in their finale a few days ago, the US sliced up Brazil to the tune of a 4-1 victory featuring several standout performances.
Let’s start with a few things I liked and didn’t like from the USWNT at the Tournament of Nations.
Megan Rapinoe is the best player on this team, and it’s not even close. It’s not just the fact that the left winger had assists in each of the three ToN contests. Her numbers in the NWSL are fantastic as well, (She’s currently top 5 in both goals (7) and assists (4)) but her dominance goes beyond stats. She’s operating in a totally different mode right now. Rapinoe has had such an up-and-down last few years. World Cup Champion in 2015. Torn ACL in December of 2015. Rushed back into form for 2016 Olympics. Poor end of 2016. Then in 2017 she had a record year. Now at age 33 Pinoe has raised the bar again. I once heard someone describe LeBron James as not really playing against opponents anymore, rather playing against the game. He has so much greater of a basketball intellect at this point in his career that it’s like he’s in his own bubble of greatness, chasing perfection instead of the opposition. He’s a computer. That’s how I feel about Rapinoe now. Her level of class is so much higher than everyone around her. The game looks incredibly slowed down to her. She can’t be rushed into mistakes. Rapinoe may be one of the older heads on the squad, but make no mistake, she is the true epicenter of this team moving forward.
Something else I love about this team right now is how much they’re scoring. Through all the injuries, there remains an embarrassment of riches for Coach Ellis to choose from in the attack. During the USA’s current 19-game unbeaten streak, they’ve totaled 58 goals. That’s good for over three goals a game in the last 12 months.
A couple other shout outs are in order for the stellar form of Lindsey Horan and Tobin Heath. Horan has ascended into stardom over the last year or so. After notching the NWSL title-winning goal last season for the Portland Thorns, she has become a regular on NWSL teams of the month. She currently sits tied with Sam Kerr atop the NWSL scoring charts with nine goals. Horan has taken a liking for late goals and jaw-dropping theatrics, including a clutch header in the 89th minute versus Australia. I love the way she commands the middle of the field for this team. Meanwhile, Heath has been on the comeback after an injury-riddled 2017. The 30-year-old continues to possess all the flicks and tricks in the book, and it was all on display as she was given the nod to start against Australia and Brazil. Her dancing assist to Julie Ertz in the 53rd minute versus the Brazilians was breathtaking, but I found her finish at the top of the 18-yard box even more impressive eight minutes later. Heath is no longer just a service-providing winger, rather a well-rounded and versatile forward. As long as she’s healthy she gives this team an astounding number of attacking options moving up the pitch.
There wasn’t a huge number of things to be critical of from the ToN, however, I find most of the issues with the USWNT continue to reside in the defensive half. I’m not entirely sold on the back two. Three years ago at the World Cup, it was Becky Sauerbrunn and Julie Ertz (She was Johnston back then) every single game in the middle. Sauerbrunn was coming off back-to-back-to-back NWSL Defender of the Year awards from 2013-15. Along with Hope Solo in net, they formed an impenetrable defensive spine. That’s not the case anymore. Ellis needs to figure out her CB’s for the 2019 World Cup quickly. The USWNT was unable to keep a clean sheet in all three ToN matchups, and only has six shutouts during the current 19-game unbeaten run. Ellis used a different centerback pairing in all three ToN games. It’s hard to say what the best combination is. Sauerbrunn is getting older. Tierna Davidson is still just 19. Abby Dahlkemper is the most in-form, but even she has lapses that didn’t seem to happen in 2015. If I’m Ellis, I might consider moving Ertz back to CB, even though I see that as an unlikely proposition. Either way, the center of defense needs to get cleaned up.
Keeping with the theme of defense, another thing I’m not a big fan of is Coach Ellis playing Crystal Dunn at the left back position. Just three seasons ago, Dunn was the MVP and golden boot winner of the NWSL as a forward. Crystal Dunn is not a left back. She is a forward/winger. Yes, some of Ellis playing Dunn at LB was due to Kelley O’Hara being out of the lineup with injury, but I still feel like there were better natural replacements. Dunn is explosive, but she lacks the instinctive defensive discipline needed to play regularly on the back line. Hopefully this was just Ellis continuing to experiment with lineup dynamics before World Cup qualifying in October.
Finally, the last thing I didn’t like from the ToN was the USWNT’s 4-3-3 formation. Personally, I’m always going to prefer the more European 4-2-3-1 formation the USA used to fuel their World Cup triumph in 2015. That makes more sense for this team. There’s not really three great box-to-box midfield choices to put in the middle of the 4-3-3. Yes, you have Allie Long and Sam Mewis who didn’t play in the ToN. Sure, Morgan Brian is still regaining her form post-injury, but players like Horan and Rose Lavelle deserve to be put in a true number 10 role. You can still play Ertz and one of Brian/Long/Mewis in the defensive mid, while freeing up space for the creative attackers to get up field. The 4-2-3-1 has been, and always will be, the way to go.
Having made those observations about the recent Tournament of Nations, I want to take a look at what Head Coach Jill Ellis might go with as her starting XI in France 2019. Obviously much of the lineup will depend on the formation. For now, I’ll assume Ellis sticks with her 4-3-3.
The USWNT Starting XI from their most recent game against Brazil on August 2nd
Let’s start with the front three. Two of these choices are absolute stone-cold locks. The aforementioned Rapinoe will be on the left wing, along with Alex Morgan in the middle. Morgan is in the midst of the most sizzling goal-scoring stretch of her famed career. She and Rapinoe are the only two players to start every game so far in 2018, and Morgan has tallied an astonishing 17 goals in her last 18 international games. The USWNT golden girl is now 29 years of age and sits in sole possession of 7th place on the USA’s all-time goal scoring list. The third forward is a really tough choice. Mallory Pugh has been out recently with a minor knee injury, so Heath took advantage of her opportunity at the ToN. You also have Christen Press, Lynn Williams, Crystal Dunn, etc. I’d favor Pugh to start at right wing in France 2019 just because she’s been on such a positive trend over the last couple of years, but the forward spot is no doubt the deepest position for the USWNT. Like the forward line, the midfield has two options that have been made easy for Ellis. Julie Ertz is the reigning US Soccer Female Player of the Year. She remains a defensive wrecking ball in the CDM position, as well as an offensive set piece terror. The other midfield lock is Horan. She always amazes me with how silky smooth her first touch is. Horan became the first American woman to play professionally in Europe straight out of high school, and the European influence in her game is well evident. The third middy spot is all about how Ellis wants to play. If she wants more shape, she can slot in Mewis, Brian or Long. I like Brian the most of those three choices. However, I believe Ellis will prefer a more offensive look and select Rose Lavelle as her third starting midfielder. Lavelle was connecting a bevy of balls to Heath and Morgan in her start versus Brazil. She just has so much offensive upside. She’s willing to take on defenders. She takes chances. Lavelle oozes creativity. Not to mention, she and Pugh are already building great chemistry as teammates on the Washington Spirit. Those two would form a fearsome tandem on the right flank of Ellis’ squad. Defensively you can realistically throw around a myriad of names who may start for the USWNT next summer. You would think one of the two fullbacks seems poised to remain Kelley O’Hara. She’s really the only defender on this team that can get up the flanks with fluidity and help the attack without compromising any defense prowess. Players like Emily Sonnett, Jaelene Hinkle and Casey Short will jostle for the other fullback spot. I give the edge to Sonnett, who’s been in fine form for the Portland Thorns. I already mentioned the centerback predicament; I definitely feel like it has the most question marks heading into France. Having said that, give me Sauerbrunn and Dahlkemper. Davidson may be the future, but she isn’t as polished yet as the other young phenoms on this team, Pugh and Lavelle. It wouldn’t surprise me though if Sauerbrunn retires immediately following the World Cup. As for the goalkeeper, I don’t see Ashlyn Harris or Adrianna Franch overtaking Alyssa Naeher’s spot. Naeher has been just solid enough since Hope Solo departed from the national team after the 2016 Olympics. Rapinoe, Morgan, Pugh; Horan, Ertz, Lavelle; O’Hara, Dahlkemper, Sauerbrunn, Sonnett; Naeher. That’s my best guess for how Head Coach Jill Ellis opens up the 2019 World Cup next June. On paper, it certainly seems like a squad worthy enough of defending their title. However, I do want to make one more prediction right now… Next summer’s World Cup Final will be contested by two of the following three teams: USA, Australia and the Netherlands. As high as I am on the USWNT, I am almost that high on the Dutch. This team has the reigning FIFA World Player of the Year in Lieke Martens. They have all the confidence in the world after winning the European Championship on home soil last summer. The Netherlands may only be currently ranked 9th in the FIFA rankings, but they have so much talent heading into the prime of their careers, it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them play the US in the 2019 World Cup Final. The Aussies and 2017 NWSL MVP Sam Kerr will make sweet music in France as well; it’s tough to pencil in one of those three teams as the sole favorite ahead of the others. Again, there’s so much to be optimistic about with the USWNT right now. 19 matches in a row with no defeats. As bad as 2017 was, 2018 has been just as good. The USWNT opens up CONCACAF qualifying on October 4th and concludes on October 17th. Now it gets fun. Stats from www.ussoccer.comwww.nwslsoccer.com and www.fifa.com. Stats accurate as of August 5th, 2018.
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